Grasp the Shenzhen A-share cash dividend characteristics, establish a value investment philosophy
2012-11-22 Source: Shenzhen Stock Exchange
The dividend is an important cornerstone of value investing. For investors, the implementation of value investing, not only need to understand the overall dividend market conditions, should grasp the distribution of market dividends, find a steady dividend company. Dividends and distribution of this article before the Shenzhen A-share market will be introduced, and establish the value of the investment philosophy put forward relevant proposals.
In recent years, the Shenzhen A-share market is gradually improving cash dividends, mainly for "increasing the total amount of dividends, the dividend has gradually increased the proportion of dividend continuity continued to improve"; distribution characteristics for the sector is mainly reflected differences, industry differences listing age differences, business differences in the nature, and the difference between the results of dividends. Improve the overall situation of the market cash dividend Shenzhen A-share investors to establish confidence in favor of value investing, and a profound understanding of the distribution of dividends it will help investors choose the value of investments.
The overall situation and trends Shenzhen A-share listed company's cash dividend
1. dividends grow larger absolute number
2009-2011, the absolute amount of dividends Shenzhen A shares were 41.233 billion yuan, 67.214 billion yuan and 80.021 billion yuan. From the increase in the proportion of view, in 2010 the total dividend increased by 63.01% from 2009, while in 2011 the total dividend off than in 2010 an increase of 19.06%.
2. The share dividend the company, more and more listed companies to implement the cash dividend
2009-2011, the Shenzhen A-share dividend the company accounting for respectively 57.96%, 66.35% and 72.69%, a larger rise.
3. The dividend payout ratio was relatively stable
2009-2011, the average dividend payout ratio of the Shenzhen A-share (more than the total amount of dividends to total net profit, the same below) of 28.45%, respectively, 28.05% and 27.61%, little changed overall level.
The gradual improvement in the dividend continuity
In recent years, the Shenzhen A-share listed companies gradually improved dividend continuity, the emergence of China Vanke A, CSG A, ZTE and a number of consecutive dividend company. As of 2009, the Shenzhen A-share dividend for three consecutive years the number of listed companies accounted for over three-year period the number of companies the proportion of 34.42%. As of 2011 earnings, the Shenzhen A-share dividend for three consecutive years listed companies reached 353, accounting for time to market 42.28 percent over three years, the total number of listed companies has risen.
Shenzhen A-share listed company's cash dividend Features
1. Comparison of the different sections
Judging from the absolute amount of the dividend, the board is still the main dividends, small plates, the GEM second. In 2011, the Shenzhen A-share dividend of 36.818 billion yuan of total board, accounting for 46.01% of the total dividend of the Shenzhen A-share; small plates total dividend of 34.787 billion yuan, accounting for 43.47% of the total dividend of the Shenzhen A-share; GEM total dividend to 8.416 billion yuan, accounting for 10.52% of the total dividend Shenzhen A shares. However, from the trend, with the small board and GEM companies increasing number of small plates accounted for total and Shenzhen A-share ratio of the total of all dividends and GEM dividends are on the rise. 2009 and 2010, small plates accounted for a total dividend Shenzhen A-share ratio of the total of all dividends were 31.64% and 37.45%, over the same period total dividends accounted for GEM Shenzhen A-share total dividend rates were 3.28% and 6.96%.
Dividends from companies accounted for, the highest proportion of GEM, small board, the board followed. In 2011, the Shenzhen A-share board, small board and GEM dividend companies accounting for respectively 45.13%, 84.52% and 91.81%. From the trend of the past three years, the Shenzhen A-share dividend motherboard and small plates accounted companies are constantly improving; share dividend the company has been in the GEM high.
From the dividend payout ratio, the GEM is higher than small plates, small plates above board in Shenzhen. In 2011, the average dividend payout Shenzhen A-share motherboard was 22.53%, the average dividend payout ratio of small plates and GEM was 33.48% and 38.85% respectively.
For value investors, we should be comprehensive and balanced view of the differences between the different sections of the level of dividends, in the understanding of the whole picture of the sector but also in-depth analysis of specific stocks, excavation company has investment value.
2. Comparison of different industries
Enterprise life cycle theory tells us, at different stages of the life cycle of business may take a different dividend policy. For example, in the formative years of business, the urgent need for funds to invest, from long-term corporate revenue streams generally unstable and weak corporate finance, then they need to lower dividends, or no dividends, the profits reinvested ; in contrast, in a mature business because fewer investment opportunities and adequate and stable cash flow, we can improve the level of dividends to repay investors. Investment guru Peter Lynch believes steady slow-growth company is one of the most worthwhile investment of six companies, because most of these companies to give investors a stable and high dividends, investors can get a higher dividend rate per year. Different industries may be at different stages of the life cycle, so the difference in the industry will be reflected on the dividends.
From dividends universality, the Shenzhen A-share market in the mining industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, machinery equipment, instrumentation industry, paper and printing industry, construction, information technology industry in 2011 accounted for more than the company's dividend 80% respectively, 90.91%, 82.61%, 82.33%, 82.14%, 81.82% and 80.88%; and Comprehensive industry, real estate, utilities, accounting for the company's dividend is less than 50%, respectively, 29.41%, 45.31% and 48.15 ʱ?? Comprehensive sustainable profitability of listed companies is relatively weak, which may affect the dividends of listed companies in the industry will; additional real estate under pressure because of macroeconomic policy control, is likely to reduce the need for prudent cash dividend will.
From the dividend payout ratio, the percentage of how much the industry will profit allocated to cash dividends to investors. 2011, wood furniture industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, paper and printing industry, the transportation and warehousing industry with the largest dividends, the average dividend rate of these industries pay more than 40%, respectively, 61.10%, 44.63%, 44.43%, 41.90% ; and other manufacturing, construction, real estate, finance and insurance and social services industry average dividend payout ratio is below 20%, respectively, 12.08%, 12.71%, 13.62%, 15.72%, 18.84%.
3. Comparison of different age Listed
Dividends from companies accounted look, 2009-2011, more than 90% of companies listed on the year ie dividends, which the company listed in 2011, 95.06% of the company for cash dividends; on the contrary, the longer the time to market for dividend company The lower proportion. In 2011, the Shenzhen A-share listed company life of more than five years, only 51.13% of the company for cash dividends, far below the new listed companies.
From the dividend payout ratio, the average dividend payout rate of newly listed companies in the long time to market for companies to 2009--2011 years, for example, when a listed company's average dividend payout ratio in excess of 35%, which in 2011 listed companies The average dividend payout ratio of 36.68%; and time to market of the company over five years, 2009 - 2011, the average dividend payout ratio is below 30%, which, in 2011 the average time to market for more than five years, the dividend payout ratio of listed companies 23.72 percent, far lower than the current average of newly listed companies dividend payout ratio of 36.68%.
How to look at differences in the level of dividends of listed companies do life? On the one hand, the performance of listed companies with a long service life of differentiation, although the overall low level of dividends, but it does have a number of continuous and stable dividend of blue-chip companies, most of these companies have stood the test of time, to meet the needs of the investment. On the other hand, we want these new listed companies in the future be able to pick out a continuous and stable dividend companies.
4. Comparison of different ownership
By listed company's actual control of different types, we compare the differences in the ownership of the Shenzhen A-share market central state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises in terms of cash dividends.
Dividends from companies accounted for, the SOE dividend is less than the universality of private and foreign-invested enterprises, in particular, private enterprises is higher than the foreign-invested enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises is higher than the central state-owned enterprises, state-owned local minimum. In 2011, the central state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises accounted for dividend companies were 61.59%, 58.53%, 78.66% and 73.33%.
Look dividend payout ratio from enterprises of different ownership dividends "generous" level, private enterprises the most "generous", followed by the central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises are the most "stingy." In 2011, the central state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises dividend payment rate was 25.57%, 23.93%, 31.87% and 14.94%.
5. Dividend Results: assigned to individual investors in the end how much?
Looking at the results from the dividend, the existence of "market share and bonus share Inequality", exist among individual investors "for the non-uniform distribution of dividends" phenomenon among investors. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Research Institute told the Shenzhen A-share studies to 2009 and 2010, for example, individual investors holding the market value of the total market capitalization ratio was 36.31%, 39.80%, but the amount of cash dividends accounted for only 29.29 %, 36.37%. This phenomenon for two main reasons: on the one hand, individual investors holding preference dividends less lead them. Compared with institutional investors, individual investors are more willing to hold and trading small cap stocks, penny stocks, underperformance, high PE stocks, ST shares, while the lower of these companies accounted for stock dividends and dividend payout ratios. In contrast, institutional investors prefer to hold large-cap stocks, while dividends of listed companies focused on large-scale companies. On the other hand, frequent trading and short-term behavior of individual investors dividends of listed companies to further reduce the audience. Investors in our market in shorter holding period, which caused most of the investors involved in the transaction, although it did not enjoy the dividends. According to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Research Institute statistics, the Shenzhen A-share market in 2009 to participate in the number of individual investors through transaction is 25,049,600, of which 62.06 percent of individual investors do not get dividends, in 2010, there are 64.34% of individual investors no get dividends.
What kind of company will become the object of investor favor?
Investors buy shares in the investment income consists of two parts, namely, dividend income (income obtained through dividends) and capital gains income (income obtained through rose). If the dividend income is too low or unpredictable, investors will turn to only focus on the ups and downs of stock prices, and thus fueling market speculation atmosphere; when the higher dividend income and more stable, investors both in dividend income and capital gains the trade-off, the pursuit of stable income and pursue value investment philosophy investors will choose to continue high dividend yield stocks, giving up a single excessive focus on stock prices. So, there are a number of dividend on the capital markets and the high level of company capable of continuous dividend is an important basis for realization of the investment.
As an emerging capital market, the overall size of the Shenzhen A-share companies is relatively small, and to growing businesses and innovative enterprises, along with the Commission to encourage, guide and supervise listed companies to improve the introduction of the cash dividend policy, plus the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from the system to the stringent requirements of a listed company in Shenzhen examine the adequacy of the dividend decision-making mechanism, adjust the cash dividend policy conditions and procedures for compliance and transparency, information disclosure of cash dividends meets the relevant requirements, we are pleased to see that already There are a large number of listed companies in Shenzhen amended in accordance with the requirements of the Articles of Association, introduced the "shareholder return next three years planning" to determine the lowest proportion of cash dividends in the next three years in line with the conditions of the cash dividend, prepare through stable, sustainable, predictable Cash dividends reward investors.
Meanwhile, in 2011 the Shenzhen A-share dividend data, we found that the Shenzhen A-share market a total cash dividends and dividends accounted companies have a more substantial increase. Specifically, the Shenzhen A-share market of the total dividend in 2011 reached 80.021 billion yuan, an increase of 19.05% compared to 2010; in 2011 the proportion of the dividends the company has reached 72.69 percent, not only improves the 6.34 percentage points higher than in 2010, and We have caught up with or exceed the level of developed markets.
Data also show that the Shenzhen A-share market has been part of the listed companies basically achieved sustained dividends, when the number of investors value investing "alternatives" are increasing. In 2011, the Shenzhen A-share dividend for three consecutive years listed companies reached 353, accounting for time to market for over 3 years 42.28% of the total number of listed companies;
On the market value of the investment in full of confidence, full of hope, but the next question for investors concerned about is, what kind of company investment purposes in order to realize the value of investing in? We recommend at least be considered from the following four aspects.
1. investors to pick profitable company, that company should have good profitability, because the company will make money only have money to be divided. At any time, profits are the company dividend basis, only continuing to create profit enterprise to have adequate cash flow, have the ability to carry out dividends. If the enterprise's net profit compared to a cake, then the cash dividend that is allocated on the cake is cut, a certain time, the greater the proportion of the cake cutting, the more investors receive cash dividends. Certainly, the company's profitability in the dividend payout ratio, the stronger and purchase price of the stock, the dividend rate will be higher. In the Shenzhen A-share market, we will find some of the company, its strong willingness dividend, the stock level is not high, but the dividend rate is not high, the reason lies in the limited profitability of these companies, in Under no circumstances the cake bigger, even cutting a larger proportion of the dividend amount was relatively small investor.
2. After the selection of the company will make money, to identify whether it is willing to dividends, and the dividend ratio is reasonable. Companies and investors only willing to share the profits of enterprises to create, with a strong willingness to pay (willing dividends) and a higher level of payment (dividend payout ratio is higher, a larger proportion of dividends), the company will earn in in the form of cash dividends inflow of investors pocket. On the market do not pay dividends of the companies we called "stingy", "stingy" only "pecking rice" no "lay" heavy financing dividends light; low pay levels of the companies we called "miser" "miser" dividend the number is extremely limited. The difference is that the former is totally do not pay dividends, although the latter dividends, but it is only symbolic. Meanwhile, another case also particularly vigilant that a listed company's high cash dividend. 2009-2011, the number of Shenzhen A-share dividend exceeds the total net profit of the company, respectively 17, 25 and 40. As a company, the total dividend for 2011 was more than 10 times net profit, even worse, in the case of a negative net profit will be "generous" bonus. To clarify this situation dividends over net profit, listed companies need to carefully analyze what purpose such dividends: What is a listed company in order to abide by its commitment dividend wholeheartedly back the investors; or major shareholders for their own gain, in order to "cash" And get cash from the company. If the company implemented a fixed amount of the dividend policy, the total amount of the dividend due to the decline in short-term profits rather than a result of net profit is understandable; however, if the company did not implement the dividend policy of a fixed amount in earnings situation remains poor implementation disproportionately dividends, especially when high-largest shareholder stake, and its share is in the restricted state, it should be of particular concern to investors.
3. Special attention dividend continuity and stability. Dividends only to ensure continuity and stability and can help investors to form stable expectations. Therefore, in the selection of investments, value investors should try to avoid dividend "fits and starts network" company.
4. After the selection of the company will be profitable, stable and continuous dividend willing dividend companies, investors should try to avoid the company stock price artificially high. Stock prices represent the cost of investment in the company's profitability and willingness to pay are the same premise, the higher the price of the stock to buy, the lower dividend yield. For example, two stocks A and B, and earnings per share are 0.4, the dividend payout ratio is 0.5; however, the purchase price is 10 yuan per share, A, B of the purchase price is 20 yuan per share. Thus, although the two companies have paid 0.2 yuan per share dividend, but the dividend A company's rate of 2%, while only half of the company's B Company A dividend rate of only 1%. In the Shenzhen A-share market, the dividend per share more than other companies, but the dividend rate is not as uncommon examples of other companies. For example, Company A share dividend (15.2 yuan for every 10 shares) higher than the company's B share dividend (to send 15 yuan for every 10 shares), but because of a company's stock price is much higher than Company B, resulting in a company's dividend yield (only 1.41%) is significantly lower than the B Company (5%) of the dividend yield.
In short, the object value of the investment necessary to meet good profitability, but also with a strong will and a higher dividend level of dividends, but also to ensure good continuity and stability of dividends, and stock prices are not too high ʱ?? [Two of the "positive returns to investors" series of promotional articles] (This article is provided by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Research Institute)
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